Assessment of the Potential Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change in Quebec—Canada, a Refined Neutral Approach

There is currently much discussion as to whether probabilistic (top–down) or possibilistic (bottom–up) approaches are the most appropriate estimate potential future climate impacts. In a context of deep uncertainty, such climate, bottom-up aimed at assessing sensitivity and vulnerability systems changes in variables have been gaining ground. A refined framework proposed here (in terms coherence, structure, results analysis) that adopts scenario–neutral method bottom–up approach, but also draws on some elements top–down approach. What better guides task hydroclimatological impacts changing climatic conditions systems, differential analysis stressors, paths change, categorized response scenarios: past, changing, compensatory, critical condition. The revealed regional behavior (of hydroclimatology, annual water balances, snow) low flows). We find, among others, plausible scenario which increases temperature precipitation would generate same current mean flows, with reduction half snow, decrease flows (significant, differentiated between basins), generalized increase dry events.